14_initiating-coverage_TEF_v2_facts-pack
Telefónica — Verified Facts Pack (production v2)
This document is the discipline artifact missing from the v1 showcase. Every number, date, and specific claim used in the v2 research doc has a source line below. Where definitions differ (EODHD vs company-reported), both are recorded with the company definition treated as canonical.
1. Corporate / market data
| Item | Value | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (TEF.MC, prev close) | €3.80 | CNBC quote page | 2026-05-06 |
| 52-week range | €3.236 – €4.893 | Yahoo Finance | 2026-04-30 |
| Market capitalisation | €21.75bn | Yahoo Finance / CNBC | 2026-05-06 |
| Diluted shares outstanding | 5,638M | Yahoo Finance | 2026-05-06 |
| Listings | TEF.MC (Madrid), TEF (NYSE), TELFY (new US symbol since 20 Jan 2026) | MarketBeat | 2026-01-20 |
| Q1 2026 reporting date | 14 May 2026 (some sources May 13) | Yahoo Finance / MarketScreener | 2026-05-06 |
2. FY2024 actuals (reported Feb 2025)
| Item | Reported value | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €41,315M (+1.6%) | Match EODHD | TEF FY24 press release |
| Adjusted EBITDA | €13,276M (+1.2%) | EODHD shows €12,354M (likely pre-IFRS 16 / different basis) | TEF FY24 press release |
| Free cash flow | €2,634M (+14.1%) | EODHD shows €5,200M — definitionally different (OCF − capex vs company stricter measure) | TEF FY24 press release |
| Net financial debt | €27,161M (-€1,537M YoY) | EODHD shows €30,890M (likely includes leases / hybrids) | TEF FY24 press release |
| Net debt / EBITDAaL | 2.58x | Company definition | TEF FY24 press release |
3. FY2025 actuals (reported 24 Feb 2026)
| Item | Reported value | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €35,120M | +1.5% constant | TEF FY25 press release / TelecomLead |
| Q4 2025 revenue | €9,174M | +1.3% | TEF Q4 25 press release |
| Adjusted EBITDA | €11,918M | +2.0% | TEF FY25 press release |
| Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA | €3,198M | +2.8% | TEF Q4 25 press release |
| Free cash flow (operations) | €2,069M | -€565M YoY | TelecomLead |
| Adjusted OpCFaL | +5.9% | TEF FY25 press release | |
| Capex / sales | 12.4% | (target was <12.5% — met) | TEF FY25 press release |
| Net financial debt year-end | €26,824M | -€337M YoY | TEF debt detail page |
| Total accesses | 326.1M | +2.1% | TelecomLead |
The reported revenue drop from €41.3B (FY24) to €35.1B (FY25) is principally the deconsolidation of Hispam disposals, not organic decline. Constant-perimeter revenue +1.5%.
4. Segment performance — FY2025
Spain
- "Landmark year" per management — best KPIs since 2018
- Record fibre + TV net adds; highest contract base ever
- Margins ~57% (segment EBITDA / segment revenue, Telefónica España)
- Revenue and EBITDA both growing
- B2B + IT maintaining double-digit growth
- Source: Q4 2025 earnings call commentary (multiple secondary sources)
Brazil (Vivo, listed VIVT3 / VIV ADR)
- Net operating revenue: R$59,595M (+6.7%)
- Adjusted EBITDA: R$24,822M (+8.5%)
- Net income: R$6,168M (+11.2%)
- 5G coverage: 67.7% of Brazilian population, 716 cities
- FTTH homes passed: 31.0M (+6.4%)
- Connected fibre homes: 7.8M (+12.0%)
- Shareholder remuneration: R$6,376.5M (103.4% payout)
- Source: Vivo Q4 2025 results / StockTitan
Germany (Telefónica Deutschland / O2)
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined in 2025 due to completion of customer migration
- 99% 5G population coverage achieved
- O2 brand perception improving
- Source: TEF Q4 25 earnings call commentary
UK (VMO2 50% JV with Liberty Global)
- Reports separately as Virgin Media O2
- VMO2 carries ~€12B debt (constrains valuation outcomes)
- Lock-up from 2021 merger ends June 2026 — TEF will then have full freedom to sell stake
- Murtra confirmed at FY25 results (Feb 2026) that TEF intends continuity in VMO2 ownership; not pursuing sale or IPO
- Possible third-party investor introduction (STC mentioned as candidate)
- Sources: El Economista, Capital Madrid, Telecoms.com
Hispam (residual)
- 6 of 8 markets sold per Murtra commentary at FY25 results
- 2025 disposals: Argentina (Jan), Peru (Jun), Uruguay, Ecuador
- Q1 2026 disposals: Colombia, Chile (closed)
- Mexico: agreement reached with Melisa Acquisition
- Hispam now ~12% of group revenue, ~7% of EBITDA (down 11%/33% YoY)
- Source: TelcoTitans, Mexico Business News
5. Strategic plan — "Transform & Grow" 2026-2030
Announced 4 November 2025 at Capital Markets Day in Madrid.
| Period | Revenue CAGR | EBITDA CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| 2025–2028 | 1.5–2.5% | 1.5–2.5% |
| 2028–2030 | 2.5–3.5% | 2.5–3.5% |
Cost savings target: €2.3B by 2028, €3B by 2030 Capex / sales 2026 guidance: ~12% FCF 2026 guidance: ~€3,000M Leverage target: ~2.5x Net debt / EBITDAaL by 2028 (currently ~2.25x already) Markets in plan: Spain, Germany, UK, Brazil + Telefónica Tech (5 verticals) M&A: not in plan; "ready to seize opportunities if they arise" Restructuring: 5,000+ job cuts being implemented in Spain Six pillars: customer experience, B2C expansion, B2B scale, technological capability, simplified operating model, talent
Sources: TEF inside information PDF (4 Nov 2025), TelecomTV, Mobile Europe, RCR Wireless, OKDiario
Investor reception: Mobile Europe noted "CEO's growth strategy does not play well with markets" — the dividend cut + slow growth headline overshadowed the strategic clarity.
6. Dividend
| Year | Per share (cash) | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | €0.30 (paid 2025) | Paid | TEF dividend history |
| 2025 | €0.30 (€0.15 Dec 2025 + €0.15 Jun 2026) | Confirmed | TEF dividend policy |
| 2026 | €0.15 (paid June 2027) | Cut by 50% — announced 4 Nov 2025 | Bloomberg, TEF inside information |
| 2027 onwards | 40–60% of FCF, paid annually in June | New policy | TEF inside information |
Yield at €3.80 share price:
- 2025 dividend: €0.30 / €3.80 = 7.9%
- 2026 dividend: €0.15 / €3.80 = 3.9%
The dividend cut is the central capital-allocation reset of the strategic plan. Frees ~€850M of FCF annually for reinvestment + deleveraging.
7. Management
| Role | Person | Since | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive Chairman & CEO | Marc Murtra Montilla | January 2025 (not Feb 2026) | DCD, Wikipedia, TEF investor page |
| CFO & Chief Control Officer | Laura Abasolo García de Eulate | 2017 | TEF investor page |
| CEO Telefónica España | Borja Ochoa | 2024 | TEF investor page |
| CEO Telefónica Brasil (Vivo) | Christian Gebara | 2019 | Vivo investor page |
| Predecessor (Murtra replaced) | José María Álvarez-Pallete | 2016–2025 | DCD |
Murtra spent 6+ years at Indra Sistemas (Spanish defence-IT) where the share price approximately tripled under his tenure. Industrial engineer, MBA from NYU.
8. Shareholder structure
| Holder | Stake | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| STC (Saudi Telecom Company) | 9.97% | Conditionally authorised by Spanish Council of Ministers Dec 2024; converted financial instruments to shares; TEF's largest non-state shareholder by voting | RCR Wireless |
| SEPI (Spanish state) | ~10% | Largest single voting block; entered 2024 | Various |
| Caixabank | ~5% | Long-standing Spanish institutional | Various |
| BBVA | ~4% | Long-standing Spanish institutional | Various |
STC has been quiescent for 16+ months at 9.97% — no public activism, no board representation requested. AGBI noted the dividend cut "casts doubt on STC's investment" — STC entered partly attracted to the yield.
9. Spain mobile market (December 2025)
| Operator | Mobile share |
|---|---|
| MasOrange | 41.24% |
| Movistar (TEF) | 26.24% |
| Vodafone Spain (Zegona) | 18.50% |
| Digi | 11.72% |
| MVNOs | 2.30% |
Spain post-paid mobile ARPU collapsed to €6.95 (industry blended) due to Digi pricing pressure. 68% of post-paid lines on unlimited tariffs; avg monthly data 18.4 GB.
Portability dynamics: in Sep 2025, Digi gained +63,660 lines and Movistar gained +28,629 lines net via portability. Movistar showing positive net adds — consistent with the "best KPIs since 2018" management commentary.
Source: CNMC monthly telecom reports, Mobile World Live
10. Sell-side consensus (May 2026)
| Item | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Number of analysts | 23 | MarketBeat |
| Average 12-month price target | €3.90 | MarketBeat |
| Range | €2.60 – €5.00 | MarketBeat |
| Consensus rating | Neutral | MarketBeat (3 Buy / 14 Hold / 6 Sell) |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy, PT €4.50 | Capital.com |
| Berenberg | Hold, PT €3.50 | Capital.com |
| New Street Research | Reduce, PT €2.60 | Capital.com |
Average PT vs spot: €3.90 / €3.80 = +2.6% upside (i.e. priced approximately for fair value already).
11. EODHD vs company-reported reconciliation
For any production analysis using EODHD as data source, these reconciliations apply:
| Metric | EODHD definition | Company definition | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | "EBITDA" (lease-inclusive) | Adjusted EBITDA (post-IFRS 16) | EODHD may understate by 5-10% |
| FCF | OCF − Capex | OpCF after leases minus spectrum/hybrid coupons | EODHD ~2x overstated |
| Net debt | Includes lease liabilities and perpetual hybrids | Net financial debt only | EODHD overstates by €4-6B |
| Leverage | EODHD-derived | EBITDAaL basis | Different denominators |
Action: For any thesis depending on dividend coverage, debt sustainability, or intrinsic value, normalise to company-reported figures. EODHD is fine for screening and relative comps; never for absolute valuation.
12. Confirmed but un-quantified items (need primary source for production)
These are claims my v1 made that I have not yet found a verified primary source for:
- VMO2 EBITDA contribution to TEF group consolidated (50% proportional)
- Brazil dividend repatriation flow (in EUR)
- Spain spectrum auction calendar 2027
- Pension underfunding figure (€1bn was illustrative)
- Perpetual hybrid balance and step-up coupon dates
- Telefónica Tech standalone revenue and EBITDA
A real production initiation would either (a) source these from the FY24 20-F filing on SEC EDGAR or the Spanish CNMV, (b) flag them as unverified placeholders, or (c) build a sensitivity around the uncertainty rather than commit to point estimates.
Sources (compiled)
- TEF FY2024 results press release
- TEF FY2025 / Q4 2025 results press release (24 Feb 2026)
- TEF FY2025 results PDF
- TEF Inside Information — Transform & Grow plan (4 Nov 2025)
- TEF debt detail evolution
- TEF dividend policy
- Bloomberg — Telefonica halves 2026 dividend
- TelecomLead — Q4 2025 detail
- TelecomTV — €3bn savings from Transform & Grow
- Mobile Europe — markets reaction
- DCD — Murtra appointed January 2025
- TEF investor page — Marc Murtra
- RCR Wireless — STC controls 9.97%
- TelcoTitans — Hispam sell-off / Mexico to Melisa
- El Economista — VMO2 lock-up ends June 2026
- Capital Madrid — Murtra confirms VMO2 continuity
- Vivo Q4 2025 results — StockTitan
- MarketBeat — TEF analyst forecasts
- MarketScreener — TEF target price consensus
- Yahoo Finance — TEF.MC price/data
- CNBC — TEF.MC quote
- CNMC — Spain mobile market shares (monthly)
- Mobile World Live — three biggest operators losing retail revenue 2025
- AGBI — dividend cut casts doubt on STC