Thought pieces

A practitioner's view on how AI and code are reshaping the investment process — what works, what doesn't, and where the real edge lies.

All models are wrong, but some are useful — and some are dangerous. Drawing on Erica Thompson's book, this article explores the limits of quantitative models and how to behave once you accept that your model is not the world.

Embracing irreducible uncertainty and building frameworks that work without precise forecasts.

A proposal for systematically learning from past investment decisions — borrowing from DeepMind, the military, and medicine to build a feedback loop into the investment process.

Why investment is an industry obsessed with individuals — and why the evidence suggests that the best outcomes come from genuine collaboration, not star culture.

Michael Lewis profiled a basketball player whose individual stats were unremarkable but whose teams kept winning. The concept of a 'glue person' — someone who makes everyone around them better — translates directly to investment teams.

When a skilled investor meets a poor investment environment, it is the environment that wins. The five ingredients of a good investment environment — and the failure modes that quietly undo them.

AI commoditises the quantifiable. What remains is the intangible: judgement, relationships, creativity, and the ability to act under genuine uncertainty. How should investors maximise the skills that machines cannot replicate?