Catalyst calendar — coverage basket, May–August 2026 (v2)

Calendar view

Date	Event	Company / Sector	Type	Impact	Positioning	Notes
14 May 2026	Q1 2026 results	Telefónica	Earnings	H	Hold	Verified: TEF reports May 14 (per Yahoo/financial calendar). First T&G plan execution check
~13 May 2026	Q1 2026 results	Deutsche Telekom	Earnings	M	—	Group focus on Germany margins; T-Mobile US already reported
15 May 2026	Annual shareholder meeting	Berkshire Hathaway	Corp	M	Long	Buffett Q&A; succession + cash deployment commentary
20 May 2026	Q1 2026 (FY-end Mar) results	Vodafone	Earnings	H	Watch	First full year under simplified portfolio post Spain/Italy exits
22 May 2026	FOMC minutes	Macro	Macro	M	—	Rate path implication for European yield names
28 May 2026	Q1 2026 results	Evergreen Marine	Earnings	H	Watch	Container freight rate read
Jun 2026	Annual general meeting	Telefónica	Corp	M	Hold	STC vote; possible board representation request
Jun 2026	VMO2 lock-up expires	Telefónica	Strategic	H	Hold	5-year lock-up from 2021 Liberty merger ends; Murtra has signalled continuity but option opens
Jun 2026	2025 H2 dividend (€0.15) paid	Telefónica	Income	L	Hold	Pre-announced; routine completion of 2025 dividend cycle (€0.30 total)
10 Jun 2026	ECB rate decision	Macro	Macro	H	—	Sector multiple driver; each 25bp cut historically worth ~3% to EU telcos
17 Jun 2026	Investor day	Orange	Corp	H	—	Africa & MASMOVIL JV update
25 Jun 2026	FOMC + dot plot	Macro	Macro	H	—	US tech sentiment re-anchor
30 Jul 2026	Q4 FY26 results	Microsoft	Earnings	H	Long	Azure growth + AI revenue contribution; capex outlook
~22 Jul 2026	Q2 2026 results	Telefónica	Earnings	H	Hold	Mid-plan execution check; Spain ARPU trend
~30 Jul 2026	Q2 2026 results	Orange	Earnings	M	—	Capex confirmation
Aug 2026	Q2 2026 results	Berkshire Hathaway	Earnings	M	Long	Cash pile + insurance underwriting

Weekly preview — week of 2026-05-11

This week's key events:

Wednesday 14 May 2026: Telefónica Q1 2026 — first read on Transform & Grow execution. Key focus: Spain ARPU sequential, group revenue growth in 1.5-2.5% guidance range, capex pacing toward 12% target, FCF run-rate to €3bn 2026 guidance. Position implication: thesis pillars 1 (Spain delivers) and 4 (plan execution) directly tested. A strong Spain print + capex on track = thesis confirmation; a soft Spain print or capex creep = thesis weakening.
Tuesday 13 May 2026 (estimated): Deutsche Telekom Q1 — read-across for European telecom margin trends. Less critical for our positioning but relevant for sector multiple direction.
Wednesday 20 May 2026: Vodafone Q1 (FY-end March-aligned) — first quarter under fully simplified portfolio. Read-across for European telecom restructuring tone.

Position implications:

Hold TEF through prints: thesis reset already priced in; balanced setup. No need to trim or add ahead of print.
Watch DTE for sector tone: if margins disappoint on capex, sector multiple could compress further, drag TEF down despite its own results.
VMO2 lock-up Jun 2026: starting to be a tradable event — any commentary at TEF Q1 about VMO2 plans is meaningful.

Next 30 days (forward look)

VMO2 lock-up expiry (June 2026): Murtra has publicly confirmed continuity intent at FY25 results, but option formally activates. Any third-party investor announcement (STC mentioned as possibility) would be material.
Telefónica AGM (June 2026): STC could push for board representation — quiescent at 9.97% for 16 months, any move asymmetric.
2603.TW Q1: freight rate environment read.
ECB rate decision (10 June): telecom sector trades inversely to long-end rates.

Macro overlay

ECB Jun 10: telecom sector trades inversely to long-end rates. Cuts = sector rerate; hawkish surprise = compression
FOMC Jun 25 dot plot: US tech sentiment driver for MSFT
EUR/BRL: Vivo dividend repatriation; €1bn+ at stake annually for TEF

What changed v1 → v2

Element	v1	v2
TEF Q1 2026 reporting date	"Thursday 8 May 2026"	Wednesday 14 May 2026 (verified)
TEF AGM significance	"STC vote on board nominees?"	More tempered: "STC quiescent 16 months; any move asymmetric"
VMO2 framing	"Liberty CEO has signalled 2026 review"	"5-year lock-up expires June 2026; Murtra confirmed continuity intent"
Mexico exit	"H2 2026 announcement"	Already sold to Melisa Acquisition Q1 2026 — removed from forward calendar
Dividend events	Forward dividend "maintained at €0.30"	2025 H2 dividend €0.15 paid June 2026; 2026 dividend €0.15 paid June 2027

Caveat

A real catalyst calendar pulls live consensus from Bloomberg/FactSet and updates daily. Earnings dates verified from Yahoo Finance / company financial calendar; some peer dates remain estimated. The structural shape — calendar + weekly preview + position implications — is the native output.