Deep-value telecom screen — anchored on Vodafone

Generated: 2026-05-05 Author: /screen (claude-for-financial-services :: equity-research) Anchor: VOD.US ADR (P/B 0.58, EV/EBITDA 5.45x, div yld 3.5%) Universe: 84 Telecom Services names in EODHD valuation_screen

Screen criteria

Sector = Communication Services, Industry = Telecom Services
Market cap ≥ $1B (local currency)
P/B between 0 and 1.5
EV/EBITDA between 2 and 8
Dividend yield ≥ 3%
Sorted ascending by EV/EBITDA

Hits: 18. Two excluded as bad data (TV.US 58% div yield, PHI.US 457% div yield — currency / special-distribution artifacts).

Comparison vs. anchor (cleaned)

Ticker	Name	Country	Mkt Cap (B, local)	P/B	EV/EBITDA	Div Yld	FCF Yld	ROE	Rev Growth
TEF.MC	Telefónica	Spain	22.0	1.14	4.19x	8.0%	23.6%	-0.3%	1.6%
ORA.PA	Orange	France	46.9	1.48	3.44x	4.1%	7.4%	7.4%	-8.8%
PROX.BR	Proximus	Belgium	2.1	0.50	3.18x	16.8%	6.0%	10.4%	6.4%
TELIA1.HE	Telia	Finland	16.8	0.30	2.43x	46.7%*	43.4%*	12.8%	0.4%
0941.HK	China Mobile	China	1,808.7	1.33	4.92x	5.4%	8.8%	10.2%	3.1%
0728.HK	China Telecom	China	462.1	1.02	3.02x	5.2%	11.9%	7.3%	4.2%
CMCSA.US	Comcast	USA	105.9	1.10	4.23x	4.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%
VOD.US	Vodafone (anchor)	USA	35.0	0.58	5.45x	3.5%	0.0%	-6.6%	0.0%

* Telia yield distorted by special distribution — verify before use.

Top 3 to research first

1. Telefónica (TEF.MC) — Long

Thesis: Spanish incumbent at trough multiple with simplified portfolio.

Trades EV/EBITDA 4.2x vs European telecom average ~6x; 8% dividend covered by FCF (23% FCF yield)
Market is anchored on years of leverage / LatAm overhang; portfolio simplification (Argentina/Peru exits) is reducing FX volatility
Catalyst: STC stake, Vivendi-style activism rumors, deleveraging milestones
Risk: Spain mobile pricing competition; LatAm FX; KPN cross-holding overhang

2. Orange (ORA.PA) — Long

Thesis: Negative revenue print masks Africa & MASMOVIL JV tailwinds.

3.4x EV/EBITDA, 4% yield; reported -8.8% revenue growth is mostly perimeter / divestments, not organic
Africa & Middle East segment growing double digits; Spain MASMOVIL JV synergy capture underway
Catalyst: MASMOVIL synergies, possible Spain exit, infrastructure carve-outs
Risk: French regulatory pressure; capex cycle for fiber

3. Proximus (PROX.BR) — Long

Thesis: Smallest, deepest discount, single-country focus.

P/B 0.5x, 17% optical dividend yield — coverage MUST be verified before sizing
Belgian fixed/mobile incumbent; clean balance sheet relative to peers
Catalyst: Net-fiber JV with Eurofiber/Telenet competitive dynamics; potential dividend rebase
Risk: Dividend cut risk is the obvious one given the 17% optical yield

Honourable mentions

China Mobile (0941.HK) — cheapest big-cap by EV/EBITDA; geopolitical/governance gating
Comcast (CMCSA.US) — different business model (cable + parks + media); likely miscategorized as pure telecom
Rogers, China Telecom, China Unicom — pass screen but each has structural differences

Data quality flags

TV.US (Grupo Televisa), PHI.US (PLDT) — excluded; clearly broken div / FCF figures
VOD.LSE shows P/B 53x and negative ROE due to write-downs — anchored on VOD.US ADR instead

Suggested next steps

Spot-check TEF/ORA/PROX dividend coverage from cash_flows and splits_dividends tables
Pull forward_pe_snapshots for consensus vs trailing comparison
Run /comps on TEF + ORA + Deutsche Telekom + BT + Telenor for full European telecom comp set