comps-analysis — Telefónica (TEF.MC)
Comps — Telefónica vs European telecom incumbents (v2)
Comparable companies
TEF row updated to reflect current price (€3.80) and FY25A company-reported figures rather than EODHD. Peer rows unchanged from v1 EODHD pull (peer financials don't change between v1 and v2 — only TEF was misrepresented).
| Name | Ticker | FY | Mkt Cap (B, local) | P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA | FCF Yld | Div Yld | ROE | Net Margin | Net Debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telefónica | TEF.MC | 2025A | 21.75 | n/m | 1.18x | 4.50x | 9.5% | 3.9% (2026 cut) | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.25x |
| Orange | ORA.PA | 2024 | 46.9 | 20.0x | 1.48x | 3.44x | 7.4% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | -0.20x |
| Deutsche Telekom | DTE.XETRA | 2024 | 140.0 | 12.5x | 2.16x | 4.51x | 14.8% | 4.0% | 17.7% | 9.7% | 1.90x |
| BT Group | BT-A.LSE | 2025 | 2,189.6 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.1% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.30x |
| Vodafone | VOD.LSE | 2025 | 2,793.2 | n/a | 52.96x* | n/a | 0.3% | 0.1% | -7.9% | -11.1% | 2.50x |
| Proximus | PROX.BR | 2024 | 2.1 | 4.8x | 0.50x | 3.18x | 6.0% | 16.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 2.10x |
| Telia | TELIA1.HE | 2024 | 16.8 | 2.4x | 0.30x | 2.43x | 43.4%** | 46.7%** | 12.8% | 7.9% | 1.90x |
*VOD.LSE P/B 53x distorted by restructuring writedowns; ADR shows 0.58x. **Telia FCF and div yields distorted by special distribution — verify before use.
TEF row v1 → v2 corrections
| Metric | v1 (EODHD only) | v2 (corrected) |
|---|---|---|
| Mkt Cap | 22.0 | 21.75 (current at €3.80) |
| FY | 2024 | 2025A |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.19x | 4.50x (re-rated as price stabilised post Nov 2025 cut) |
| FCF Yld | 23.6% (EODHD def: OCF − Capex) | 9.5% (company def: FCF €2.07bn / mkt cap €21.75bn) |
| Div Yld | 8.0% (FY24 dividend basis) | 3.9% (2026 cut to €0.15 / €3.80) |
| ROE | -0.3% | 2.0% (FY25A net income recovered modestly) |
| Net Margin | -0.1% | 3.0% (FY25A €700m+ net income / €35.1bn revenue) |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 2.40x (EODHD basis) | 2.25x (company-reported €26.8bn / €11.9bn EBITDAaL) |
The FCF Yield correction is critical: at company-reported FCF of €2.07bn divided by current market cap of €21.75bn, the FCF yield is 9.5% — still attractive but not the 23.6% headline EODHD-derived figure that v1 used. v1's FCF yield ranking placed TEF in the top quartile of the peer set; v2 places it in the median quartile (still above ORA at 7.4%, below DT at 14.8%).
Statistical bands (peers ex-TEF) — unchanged from v1
| Metric | Min | 25th | Median | 75th | Max | TEF v2 | Rank (re-ranked) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4x | 3.0x | 8.7x | 18.1x | 20.0x | n/m | — |
| P/B | 0.30x | 0.40x | 1.48x | 27.58x | 52.96x | 1.18x | 3 / 6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4x | 2.6x | 3.3x | 4.3x | 4.5x | 4.50x | 5 / 5 (highest in screen) |
| FCF Yield (company def for TEF) | 0.1% | 0.3% | 6.7% | 21.9% | 43.4% | 9.5% | 4 / 7 |
| Div Yield (2026 prospective for TEF) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.0% | 24.3% | 46.7% | 3.9% | 4 / 7 (lower than v1 8.0%) |
| ROE | -7.9% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 2.0% | 2 / 7 |
| Net Margin | -11.1% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 2 / 7 |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | -0.18x | 1.39x | 2.01x | 2.35x | 2.51x | 2.25x | 5 / 7 |
Read
- TEF trades at the highest EV/EBITDA in the screen (4.50x vs 3.4x median). The market is pricing the Transform & Grow execution + Brazil compounding in already.
- FCF yield re-ranked — at 9.5% (company definition) TEF is mid-pack, not top-quartile. v1's 23.6% was misleading.
- Profitability metrics improved modestly vs v1 — FY25A returned to small positive net margin and ROE; impairment cycle ending.
- Net debt 2.25x EBITDAaL — already close to the 2028 target of ~2.5x; the deleveraging discipline has been delivering.
- Dividend yield reset to 3.9% for the 2026 cycle (paid June 2027) — no longer the income carry trade.
Anchored interpretation
If you take Telia and Proximus as the deep-value floor (EV/EBITDA 2.4–3.2x) and Deutsche Telekom as the quality-incumbent ceiling (4.5x, but with T-Mobile US pull), Telefónica now sits at the DT multiple but with lower quality metrics (ROE 2% vs 18%, net margin 3% vs 10%). The market is pricing the Transform & Grow plan succeeding — there is no longer a multiple expansion thesis at this level without operational outperformance vs guidance.
Caveat
A production comps analysis would normalise all peers to common-definition financials (FCF post-spectrum/leases, net debt incl. hybrids, EBITDAaL). The v1 vs v2 TEF correction is itself a useful illustration of why this normalisation matters — using EODHD-derived figures consistently puts TEF in flattering position; using company-reported figures shows it as a fair-value trade rather than a deep-value setup.